After a devastating winter in 2022-2023 that severely impacted Northwest Colorado’s big game herds, local wildlife populations are showing promising signs of recovery, according to Colorado Parks and Wildlife officials. That winter, which was marked by deep snowpack and prolonged cold, caused widespread mortality among elk, mule deer and pronghorn across all of Northwest Colorado.
However, thanks to consecutive mild winters and conservative wildlife management, populations are beginning to rebound at a faster-than-expected pace and should in turn lead to increased opportunities for hunters pursuing big game in the region.
“We estimate we lost close to half of our elk population after that severe winter,” said Mike Swaro, assistant area wildlife manager for Colorado Parks and Wildlife. “But within two years, we’re already projecting to jump back into our objective range.”
RESPONDING TO A CATASTROPHIC SEASON
Swaro, a veteran wildlife officer who has served in Northwest Colorado since 2005, said the winter of 2022-2023 presented conditions he had never seen before in his career.
“It was a difficult winter,” he said. “We were strung out across the landscape trying to help landowners and ranchers. There was a lot of livestock conflict and we did the best we could to get through it.”
In the months that followed, CPW took immediate and drastic steps to help the wildlife populations recover, including reducing the harvest of female animals, which according to CPW drives population trends. jump right back up into the 50s,” Swaro said. Colorado Parks and Wildlife implemented feeding operations during the winter of 2022-23 to support big game. Though the effort was extensive, it couldn’t offset the impacts of consistent snowfall and prolonged cold temperatures.“
“On the antlerless side, those licenses were cut back to minimums — 10 licenses per hunt code,” Swaro said. “When we’re talking about elk, deer and pronghorn, we took those all the way back to the minimum available.”
In the case of pronghorn, CPW went further, eliminating doe tags entirely for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. “That’s how conservative we got on the antlerless or female side of the equation,” Swaro said.
ELK RECOVERY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
Of all species affected, elk experienced some of the heaviest losses.
Collar data collected during and after the 2022-2023 winter showed adult cow survival dropped to 70%, far below the typical 90 to 95% range. Calf recruitment, defined as the number of calves that survive through their first year, fell into the teens, signaling potentially significant long-term impacts on elk populations.
But back-to-back mild winters in 2023 and 2024, combined with CPW’s conservative population decisions, have led to encouraging results.
“The last two years we’ve had calf ratios jump right back up into the 50s,”Swaro said. “We’ve had really good recruitment and really good overwinter survival.” Swaro said. “Wev’ve had really good recruitment and really good overwinter survival.”
Swaro noted that recent post-winter classification of elk herds revealed strong spike bull ratios, a positive indicator of bull numbers in the years to come.
“Two years out, we should see a lot more branch-antlered bulls — two-and-a-half-year-old bulls —entering the population,” he said. “We’ve got a young, vibrant elk herd. The core that’s left is the most fit, young and productive elk.”
Given the strength of the rebound, CPW is beginning to reintroduce cow elk licenses and anticipates adding more in the near future.
“It’s really good to relay to the public that we’re back in business,” Swaro said. “People should be excited about elk hunting. Things are on the uptick for sure.”
MULE DEER AND PRONGHORN FACE DIFFERENT CHALLENGES
Mule deer, surprisingly, fared better than elk during the harsh winter — a reversal of normal patterns. Swaro attributes that to the species’ browsing behavior, which allowed deer to access sagebrush above the snowpack while elk, which are classified as grazers, struggled to reach buried forage.
“We had mule deer survival just a little bit better than elk, which is the first time I’ve ever seen that,” he said.
Still, mule deer populations took a hit. Since then, CPW has observed strong fawn production, including a notable number of twin births. Chronic wasting disease, however, continues to pose a longterm concern for deer in the region and could limit growth even as winter pressures subside.
PRONGHORN SUFFERED THE MOST DRAMATIC LOSSES OF ANY SPECIES
“In places, we lost 80% of our pronghorn,” Swaro said. “They’re thin, speed-built animals and when a hard winter hits, it’s difficult for them to maneuver through snow or get over fences.”
CPW observed significant mortality from starvation, fence entanglement and roadkill. But despite the severity of the die-off, some antelope herds survived in areas near the Wyoming border, where winter arrived later and conditions were slightly less severe.
Swaro said that by halting the doe pronghorn harvest for two years, CPW has given the remaining population a chance to recover.
“They’ve dispersed back into the same areas they’ve always been,” he said. “There just aren’t as many of them.”
WHAT HUNTERS SHOULD EXPECT
As populations rebound, CPW is adjusting tag allocations to reflect the developing population trends. While changes will remain gradual and data driven, hunters can expect more opportunities in coming years.
“We’ve already got some antlerless cow tags coming back on for this year,” Swaro said. “Next year, I expect some further increases.”
Buck tags for mule deer have also been added back into the mix. While CPW remains cautious about pronghorn, particularly does, it has begun slowly reintroducing small numbers of buck tags in some hunt codes.
“We’re talking about adding five or 10 pronghorn tags on the buck side to start creeping back up,” Swaro said. “But they were hit the hardest so we’re still being pretty conservative there.”
Over-the-counter opportunities for elk may also return in some units. While units in the northern portion of Moffat County remain capped or limited with a draw, Swaro said CPW is hopeful to reopen those hunts in the coming years.
“I think we’ll get back to that over-the-counter hunting we did prior to the 2023 winter,” he said.
Swaro emphasized that CPW will continue to monitor conditions closely, especially in the event of another severe winter.
“You can’t crystal-ball a winter like 2023,” he said. “But if we get dealt a winter like that again, we’ll react, just like we did that year and in the years since. It’s all about adjusting the dial on the antlerless side to manage population growth.”
For now, that dial is slowly turning forward — and the wildlife across Moffat County are moving with it.
For more information on big game populations and tag allocations in Colorado, visit cpw.state.co.us.